Friday, June 23, 2006

globalwarming and our dire need of dams

i was watching this discussion about global warming and how we're on the edge of a precipice.a few years ago i used to pooh pooh global warming..or like the chinese/indians or third world countries in general blame it all on the west.even though the west is primarily responsible for getting the world where it is right now as far as global warming is concerned that does not mean we carry on in the same vein cos the consequences would be apocolyptic. it might be unfair to us but we dont really have a choice. we need to invest more in eco friendly energy sources as well as industrial output.
now i really think we need dams.as many as we can build and obviously as eco friendly as possible. for starters we are a poor agrarian economy.secondly energy is way to expensive and unreliable in this country. third we really need to marshall our water sources better.besides dams we need to line our canals so that seepages are limited. however one dam that is truly needed will never be built.thats kalabagh.there ive said..call me a lahori/punjabi insensitive domineering bastard if u want but kalabagh has the most merit. from my understanding dams store water not consume them. secondly kalabagh naturally or geographically is in such an area which is best suited to store the maximum amount of water.for example the monsoon rains dont go upto basha.basha can only catch the water of the melting glaciers. secondly kabul river links up with the indus before kalabagh and after tarbela(huge source of water.) flooding would almost be eliminated in punjab and sindh. large tracts of balochistan will become arable.indus delta will be preserved cos there'll be water all year round to send down kotri(ill elaborate on this later on).and finally lots of cheap energy will be produced. the negatives are 80000-100000 ppl will be displaced. parts of NWFP will be submerged. punjab will get royalty i suppose.as for sindh not getting enough water i curse the people who screwed sindh out of its share of water in the past cos the mistrust has never gone away.as for the indus delta case this is how kalabagh would help.during the monsoon season it so happens that for four months or so theres plenty of water in the indus.infact theres more water in the indus then is required.hence the annual floods.but when the winter comes and theres no melting snows and rainfall the situation in kotri downstream becomes critical.what kalabagh would do is store the rainfall and melting snows surplus.now kalabagh is not the end all and be all...canals need to be lined as well..its not an either/or situation.suggestion to the contrary are welcome as usual

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

negativity gone wild!!!

we as a nation are highly negative, cynical and in most cases emotional.in many cases its justified cos over the past 50 odd years this nations masses have been trampled upon brutally...by civil and military governments alike..by feudals,industrialists and shopkeepers.the poor have been taken for granted and a ride by the so called elite of this country.now 50 years of abuse and neglect cant be reversed overnight.it'll take decades before that can happen..unfortunatly the circumstances are such that no one can wait for that long.there are many who subscribe to the notion that the gap between the rich and the poor has widened.poverty has increased.i will not get into that.i will also try not getting into the ideological/philosophical debate for the moment as well.what can be done to eradicate poverty.jobs and education.providing opportunities for employment as well as providing some semblance of eductaion to enable the poor the means to acquiring skills.there are many job opportunities in this country that are going unfilled because of lack of skilled labor..just ask anyone in the textile industry.we need textile colleges and universities.another area is skilled labor involved in masonry etc.this labor is in high demand cos of the construction(boom) spurt/bubble whatever u want to call it..their wages have shot up while their numbers have gone down.basically supply of electricians,carpenters,painters is not keeping up with demand.third the PSDP progam of the government is akin to Roosevelt's new deal.public spending providing jobs not in factories and industry but in building infrastructure.dams/highways/canals/gas pipelines/grid stations etc.for the first time in Pakistan's history the government has fiscal space to spend on meaningful infrastructure projects that will not only provide much needed employment to the poor but also enable industry to expand and become much more competitive.however theres a catch..the moneys there.the projects are there...but is there the capacity to actually spend and spend efficiently..that sadly is a big questionmark.political patronage and bureacratic inefficiencies will hinder that.but if the government can manage to even spend upto 75%of the rs.435billion that'll be tremendous and a very good start.PSDP if the current government structure remains is estimated to go up by at least 20%every year.that means over the next 6 years the government will spend RS4.23 trillion or at currnet exchange rates $70billion.all this money hopefully will be spent on development infrastructure.if most of this money is spent the face of this country will be changed for the better.since inflation has reared its ugly head very soon into our economic growth it'll behoove the government to ensure the money spent doesnt add to the inflationary pressure.
as for the private sector if energy as well as road infratructure is improved their costs of doing business should come down thus hastening the rate of their growth and expansion.eveything is linked but it will take time.people talk about musharraf having had 7 yrs and not achieving much and tht to an extent is a justifiable criticism, however it is only in the last couple of years that we have managed to create some fiscal space.im hopeful but there are still many hurdles to overcome.however despite the inflation,poverty etc water has started going into the glass drop by drop.lets hope the drops becomes bigger and heavier